How SmokeLoss works

SmokeLoss calculates your lifetime cigarette spend using actual US average prices going back to 1945, then shows what the same money would be worth today invested in the S&P 500 or gold.

The cigarette price data

We use US national average retail cigarette prices per 20-cigarette pack, sourced from CDC tobacco surveillance reports, Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data, and the Orzechowski & Walker Tax Burden on Tobacco annual series — an industry-standard data source used by health economists and researchers.

These are the all-in prices consumers actually paid at checkout, including:

• Federal excise tax (currently $1.0066/pack)
• State excise taxes (varies from $0.17/pack in Missouri to $5.35/pack in Connecticut)
• Local municipal taxes in some jurisdictions
• Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) pass-through costs, phased in after 1998
• Manufacturer profit margin and retailer markup

The S&P 500 investment model

For each calendar year from your start year through 2024, we calculate what your annual cigarette spend would be, then apply that year's actual S&P 500 total return (price gain plus dividends reinvested). The portfolio compounds year after year.

We use actual historical total returns — including every crash and recovery since 1945: the post-war adjustment of 1946 (−8.1%), the stagflation bear market of 1973–74, the dot-com collapse of 2000–02, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2022 rate-hike selloff. The model doesn't cherry-pick good years.

Key assumptions and limitations

• One investment per year (annual), not monthly — monthly dollar-cost averaging would give slightly different results
• No capital gains taxes modelled — actual after-tax returns in a taxable account would be lower
• No investment fees — a low-cost index fund (e.g. Vanguard VOO) costs 0.03%/year, so this is negligible
• No inflation adjustment — both the cigarette costs and investment values are nominal (not real)
• Past returns do not predict future returns — this is illustrative, not a financial plan

The gold investment model

For each calendar year, we calculate how many troy ounces of gold your annual cigarette budget would have purchased at that year's London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) annual average price. We then multiply your total accumulated ounces by the current gold spot price (~$3,300/oz as of June 2025).

Gold sat around $35/oz from the 1940s until President Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, after which it was free to float. It surged to ~$590/oz in 1980, crashed back through the 1980s–90s, and has been in a long bull market since 2000 — hitting all-time highs above $3,000/oz in 2025.

How the "days spent smoking" is calculated

Research studies measuring time-to-smoke completion for commercial cigarettes find an average of approximately 7 minutes per cigarette. We multiply your total cigarette count by 7 minutes and convert to days. This represents time with a cigarette physically in your hand — not time affected by nicotine, which is continuous.

The assets gallery

Prices reflect approximate 2025 US retail MSRP or market values. They are illustrative — actual prices vary by trim, options, dealer markup, and location. The gallery shows how far your investment portfolio would go today, not a specific shopping recommendation.

Cigarette prices by decade — reference table

About this project

SmokeLoss is a solo side project, part of the BluntCalc portfolio of honest health calculators. The goal is brutally honest math — no sugarcoating, no upsells, just numbers.

Everything runs in your browser. No measurements are sent anywhere. No account required.